Tuesday, July 05, 2005

Are the Phillies Statistical Outliers?

In statistics, an outlier is an observation which is completely different from other observations.

Moneyball types noticed a general formula which relates to wins and losses for a ballteam. The difference between runs scored and and runs given up will accurately tell you how many wins you had. They then related this to OBP, slugging percentage, etc.

The Phillies have a lot of good players which can generate a lot of runs. However, they don't produce the amount of runs or wins you would suspect. Why?

My theory is that they score runs in bunches. Hot and cold. So last night they scored 10+ runs. Tomorrow, they will score 1. That averages to 5.5. Pretty good average. Very bad result.

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